This question has been on my mind a lot lately. I see a few primary truths that dominate the current scene and immediate future:
The record labels haven't yet figured out the most effective way to take advantage of the digital music revolution. They are not good at change, but they recognize that change is on the way and will be forced to open their doors to experimentation and adaptation. One good example are Hulu-equivalent music downloading sites, FreeAllMusic.com and Guvera.com, who have two major labels on board (Universal and EMI) and allow you to download a limited selection of major pop chart singles and album tracks for free after simply viewing an advertisement (one song per day, per user). This model could easily take off in a scenario where other major labels join up and they collectively analyze the profit model for ad revenue from music downloading. It may not look like the most appealing option to them (as compared to the iTunes Store where consumers pay a traditional retail price), but the labels can't underestimate the impact it will have on music piracy. Nobody streams TV shows from crappy rip-off websites if those same episodes are available on Hulu - you choose the smooth stream, high quality, and you put up with the advertisement. People who are too frugal or (like me) go through enormous quantities of music will embrace an above-board music downloading model that enables you to give back to artists and labels without hemorrhaging money.
#2: ALL ROADS LEAD THROUGH APPLE
There will be massive innovations in the storage, access routes and interface with digital music over the next few years. However, the iPod and friends are so important to the average user's current interaction with digital media that a music storing and playing application will only be a viable market competitor if it can sync with your iPod. Apple is notoriously selective about which programs can sync with (or become apps on) their devices, and this functions, intentionally or not, as a vicious strategy to maintain monopoly for their entire suite of media programs and devices.
#3: HARDWARE IS GETTING EASIER
Netbooks already have a significant market (11% of the current laptop market,* though only 15-20% of netbook sales are directly cannibalized from lower-end notebooks,** with the rest being secondary computing devices), and the iPad fills a similar niche for the purposes of this analysis. If anything, the current set of web-focused devices are over-powered for the coming revolution. Google has announced plans to set their Google Chrome Operating System (currently in testing) as the default for certain new netbooks which will have virtually no on-board hard disk storage, operating on the cloud computing principle. All of these devices are small and portable enough to move around and link up to speakers, and beat out your current laptop because they will literally click on at a moment's notice (like your TV) and give you full web and media access.
#4: MINING CLOUD CITY (BESPIN OR BUST, BABY)
Cloud computing seems inevitable, and awesome. Google is absolutely building for this concept, and I see no reason they will fail. Pieces of the puzzle are already in place (Google Docs, for example) and the Google Chrome Operating System will sync perfectly with the Google Chrome Browser to make your machine an internet portal. An internet portal will be all you need when all of your files are stored online and all of the programs and applications that access those files are actually websites, or even applications integrated into the browser experience. There are already hints at this - while perusing AlternativeTo.net's set of links to free online or shareware equivalents for any program you consider essential, it becomes clear that an online equivalent of iTunes that also stores your music for you is quite plausible. Item #2 becomes relevant again here, however. Apple seems unlikely to license new competitors to their iTunes/iTunes Store music player and sales behemoth - if you are playing your music elsewhere, you won't have one-click access to their store. Hence, don't count on your iPod syncing to any cloud computing-style music application until Apple produces their own.
#5: LAGGING LAND LINES
All of this talk of cloud computing and streaming your media collection is wonderful, but most of us, even in major cities, have a frankly mediocre internet connection. The rapidfire advances emerging in other sectors are not being mirrored in our Internet Service Providers. In most locations, your ISP is your phone or cable company. These are behemoth corporations with terribly slow customer service and troubleshooting that have no real incentive to improve so long as they maintain monopoly-like holds on the "high-speed internet" markets. Enter (surprise!) Google. Google has announced plans to run an experimental broadband network in several cities around the United States. For years, Google has been buying up "dark fiber," impressively fast fiber-optic lines build during the late 90's internet bubble. In certain cities (sorry, no list yet) they will offer themselves as an alternate ISP with home internet connection speeds of 1 gigabit per second (100 to 200 times faster than your current broadband internet connection)!*** Their test offering is designed to show customers what a truly modern network connection would feel like, spurring growth across the industry and making our country a feasible place to run the kind of web-dependent computer infrastructure we are being promised. When you can download a full-length HD movie in 3-4 minutes, worrying about whether your music will access and stream smoothly from an online storage site will seem archaic.
WHAT TO EXPECT
I think we will see low or no-storage netbooks coming out with the Google Chrome OS within the next couple of years. Initially, I think there will be some problems when it comes to making your suite of applications and technology work together. Chrome will most likely have a built-in media player designed to access your files stored online, but there may still be size restrictions on your online media storage. Apple products, including the iPod and iPhone, will most likely not be allowed to sync with that player, preventing you from easily updating your newest playlists and favorite tracks. If I had to find a stopgap measure, I would be tempted to invest in something like the Iomega 34337, a 1TB External Hard Drive that also functions as a NAS (Network Attached Storage) Server, which will store all of your media files and stream them across your home wireless network so that your storage-less web portal device has a library to draw upon. With 3G capability becoming a feasible network plug-in on almost any device, you should soon be able to set your NAS device on your desk at home and go anywhere in the world (within the 3G network) while still accessing your media.
If this article reads like I'm a bit of a Google fanboy, that's a risk I'm willing to take. Their desire to open-source everything and innovate in every available arena makes me hope that an iPod equivalent device will actually take some market share and we'll no longer have to worry about Apple's buy-in for every new idea. The possibilities are virtually limitless, so keep your ear to the streets for more news on Google's ISP, the Chrome OS, and more details about the first signs of viable cloud computing. Your digital music experience is about to evolve, and soon enough you'll be happier with where you get it, how you store it and the interface that allows you to play and distribute it.
*Figure from a recent DisplaySearch study.
**Estimates from HP CEO Mark Hurd and IDC analyst Richard Shim
***Source: Faster, Faster by Farhad Manjoo on Slate.com, 2/18/1020
Fine, here's a killer new song from a hot San Francisco band for you, just as a reward for reading to the end. Don't cheat.
The Morning Benders - Excuses
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